Paying attention to macro economics and international relations is somewhat foolhardy (but fun!).
Its not that it doesn’t matter, its just extremely difficult to be right. The world is a complex place and predicting what will happen let alone what that means for your investments is so difficult you probably shouldn’t even try.
Sometimes, however, the large moving pieces like sovereign debt, demographics, and economic growth send such a strong signal that it is difficult to ignore.
Pundits have been yapping for years about the unsustainable sovereign debt growth. They have been wrong only in timing, and every year that passes brings us closer to the day that the debt matters.
Facing low economic growth, high sovereign debt loads, and high inflation, we may be in a period of stagnation. It is a particularly difficult investment regime.
The real return of bonds is crushed by inflation, equities
Governments, faced with crushing debt loads and diminished tax receipts, need
What is financial repression
A model portfolio